I have received a lot of criticism over th last year and a half for my support of Trump and prediction he would win in a landslide. Of course, unlike many pundits, academics, pseudo intellectuals, and chattering classes, I have never spoken in definite abut all this because, of course, I could be wrong.
Here is a short list of reasons:
- None of the polls are consistent. Not only are all the polls varying widely, but the same polls in the same polling house are swinging greatly. This means everyone is having a difficult time nailing down the methodology.
- #1 suggests a changing electorate, but it could also mean that the pollsters are just plain wrong.
- Many polls are simply propaganda polls. As Pat Caddell and Wikileaks have noted: many of the polls are in cahoots with one party–the Democrat. Hence the RCP average is a joke.
- Polling is NOT science (Part 1). It is largely art. Why? Because pollsters have to rely on assumptions and predictions based on guesses about turnout. They also have to adroitly ask the questions the right order, and then correctly decipher what makes a likely voter.
- Polling is NOT science (part 2): Polls are based on statistics. Anyone who has taken a basic stats class knows that MOEs and confidence levels are based on…..majority consensus. In other words, there’s nothing scientific about the entire enterprise of polling at its core. It is all based on “science” because a “majority” claim this or that is true.
- This is not a normal election year: If indeed this were a normal year, pollsters could draw from the last election to predict turnout. This is not that as we already know. Most th polls are drawing, for Hillary, based on Obama’s turnout. That is frankly a huge ruse and dishonest.
- Black Turnout: Trump is the first Republican since Lincoln and Grant, et. al., to go after the black vote. I always thought he could make inroads into this Democrat base. He is. There is no reason why Hillary should have ended her campaign in Philly. But she did. Why? Trump is likely going to get north of 10% of the black vote.
- New Voters: There is just no doubt that Trump is turning out the vote. He is energetic and Clinton is a drag. Both of those at once, means advantage Trump. Energetic voters come to vote. Uninspired voters sit at home.
- New Voter Part 2: Trump has definitely brought in new voters. Most of those are predominately white voters, but not exclusively. He has also brought over more Democrats to the party. I surmised he would do this from day one. His inroads into women also bodes ill for the democrats–Hillary does very bad with both married, and non college educated women. My better half is both educated and now a convert to the Republican party, all because of Trump. Though anecdotal, it is representative of what I have seen on the ground.
- The Clinton Criminal Crime Family: Have maintained that Clinton is an awful candidate. She’s weak, she shrieks, she hates everyone around her, and they hate her. She is crooked and evil, yes I mean she’s evil. It is pretty obvious to see. She treats people around her like dogs. She has blood on her hands. She thwarts the law for her own gain. She’s a racketeer. She’s a racist. She starts wars. She’s violent. She’s verbally and physically abusive. All of these things certainly contribute to her dead level of support (pun intended).
- Trump the Man: Gong up against a crook and violent warmonger like Hillary, needed a person who would not stoop to her games. As a matter of fact, the wimpy Republicans needed a real man to make a case and stop running away like a snowflake at the first hint of opposition (this is why Milo calls him Daddy, because the Republicans are children and, well, someone has to be the man). The manly Trump of course was accused of the most stupid charge of being a Caesar–so long has manliness been absent from conservatives. To make this on point: Trump dishes out that he receives, but only after he receives it, and then he finishes it. Hillary and the entire Democrat party are beside themselves because, (Gasp!) Trump called them what they are: hateful anti-free speech, anti life, anti first and second amendment, racists. I do not throw the R word around lightly like Dana “I’m in over my head” Milbank does. I mean it because it is true. We are sick and tired of being called a racist because, for one, we believe in the golden rule. It’s takes a special kind of stupid, and dishonesty to then say, oh that means you don’t like x. That’s demagoguery. Trump is so far into their head, he has gotten them to overstep and say he likes the KKK. Morons. Game over. You’ve been exposed. Trump fought, and he won on these points, and there’s space now to fight back against the real book burning party and their sycophants.
- Je Ne Sais Quoi: There is a sense in the country that everything broken. From the borders, to losing wars, to the fact that the economy is really not that great. There is a sense that the elites are not elite, but oligarchs. Oligarchs do not deserve to be called such. Further, the intellectuals of the right have become complete shills and complacent with their position. Better to get the scraps from the table and lose than to get nothing at all. As such, when they were confronted with the one candidate who gave them nearly everything they wanted, they ran back to their cribs and sucked their thumbs whining the entire time–Jonah Goldberg this means you in particular–ungrateful bastard. At any rate, this revelation resonated with many who found that whoever these “conservatives” were they were not really conservative, much less cared about normal people. Couple this fact with the other known fact that the media, even Fox, has a stake in the system, and it makes sense that there appears a large oligarchical faction that quite likes the way things are. The reason Trump wins, is that he taps in the many more people who know all of this on some level, and are just plainly fed up and for the first time are enthused for a candidate to do something about it.