Tags

,

If there is one thing we learned from last night’s primaries in Nevada and South Carolina, it is that we seem to be headed for a showdown between Trump and Clinton.

On the Democrat side, it is quite obvious that Sanders does not have a killer instinct–he will not fight for the nomination despite Clinton’s lies about him.  He is so close to knocking her off, that if he would have only 1) called into question her ability to truly protect the American people after selling them out for personal gain in her personal server to hide her family’s fleecing of the republic, and 2) had joined the foreign policy debate more seriously, he would have wounded her mortally.   But no Democrat challenged her, and the DNC purposely backed her.  The only avenue to win challengers had was to question her patriotism, temper, and illegal activities rhetorically through public speech.  None did.

Let’s be clear:  Hillary did not win this nomination, Sanders gave it away to her.

The Republicans are poised to nominate Trump to the head of their party.  Yes, there are tepid naysayers like Five Thirty Eight that maintain Trump is doomed, maybe, potentially, they hope.  It is possible Trump does not win the nomination, and as people drop out, it is possible that Trump get’s overtaken by a challenger.  At this point, the only person who poses a challenge to him is Rubio. The rest are done.

Cruz has no path to the nomination.  He is untrustworthy, he is disliked, he is running a narrow religious based campaign, and he has this problem with his weird marriage that makes traditionalists he’s appealing to wonder about his sincerity or, again, ability to be honorable and decent. How can you love your country if you place your own ambition above your duty as father and husband?  Trump nailed the problem with Cruz’s ability to be honest when he questioned how he could claim that he’s such a good Christian, then holds up the Bible, and lies over and over.  Cruz played into this when he doubled down, lied about Trump and Rubio, and then conducted robo calls the morning of the SC primary.  Talk about confirming your worst suspicions.  Last night, while Cruz was giving his “victory speech” his oldest daughter wanted to be anywhere but on the stage.  She inched from being between her mother and father, to her mother’s left, and then ran off the stage while Cruz was saying how “historic” his 3rd place finish was.  Heidi looked frustrated.  They always look unhappy.  She seems to always turn her cheek to her husband so as not to allow him to kiss her on the lips.  That’s a symbolic way of saying, we’re done.  Certainly politically, Cruz is finished.

The remaining candidates–Trump and Rubio–the others are not going to make it to the nomination.  This is a 2 way race now.

No matter who becomes the nominee, the Republicans are poised to demolish Hillary.

First, for Trump, he will bring new people into the party, and he’ll peel off about 20% of the Democrat voters.  That means a Republican win.  That fact also does not bode well for the Democrats or Hillary, where the primary electorate loathes her, or is certainly not on fire for her.  The base of the Democrat Party will sit home like it’s 1980.  Second, Trump is turning out voters:  SC turnout was crushing, but it’s up across the board and it is so because of enthusiasm, and because of Trump.  Even if Trump is not the nominee, Republicans are in good shape.  The trends are in their favor.  Republicans rode a wave in 2014.  Republicans are in the strongest position since the 1930s.  Their majority is solid and is increasing.  The Kentucky gubernatorial race is a bellwether of sorts as the Republican defied the polls and beat the Democrat.  The polls have been under representing Republican turnout now for at least two cycles:

In all these cases, polls seem to have understated actual support for right-of-center candidates and parties while coming fairly close to actual percentages for those left of center. It may be that some conservative voters, disgruntled with party leaders as poll results indicate, refuse to commit to voting for their parties until election day. Or they may be what in Britain are called “shy Tories,” reluctant to publicly declare themselves because the mainstream media treat conservatism as a stigma.

Regardless of the claims by Dems for 2016, the polls are not good for the party in 2016.

All trends point to this being a Republican year.

Advertisements