The always interesting Jay Cost posts that we should be careful about the plethora of polls sure to come as the primary and general approach.  Why?

The more prudent approach, of course, is not to be put in the kind of position where all those old “insights” have to be abandoned, which is why we need to be really careful with the early polling on 2012. It can lead us down a lot of blind alleys. The mass public at this point is paying virtually no attention to the campaign, which is mostly happening behind the scenes anyway, so polling conducted at this early stage is really not worth very much.

He has lots of good advice, but one thing we can follow now is the President’s “deserve re-election” numbers.  The number is below 50% and has been for some time.