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A poll released by Marshall University purports to show Manchin with a double digit lead over Raese.  Unlikely.  As a matter of reliability, it is a campaign poll, as Politico notes.  More suspicious, is that there is no link to the poll or its methodology.  Knowing less than we know about this poll, we should probably discount it until more is known.  Any poll worth its salt, makes know something of the internals.  Until there is transparency, the poll is meaningless.  One thing that does stand out to me, is that Manchin still does not poll above 50%, and here, in this poll, he is at 48%.  This means, if the poll is reliable to any extent, Manchin has been flat for months in the upper 40% range.

In polling, reputation matters.  I would trust the PPP polling firm before this ad hoc poll.  I am not saying this poll is wrong, but it is an odd poll that is so far outside most of the polls published over the last few weeks.  It appears to be an outlier.

My take on the race at the moment, is that it is a toss up.  It could go either way.

Jay Cost gets the final word on this “poll.”

Manchin and Oliverio are both on the ballot in WV-1 as Democrats.  What’s good for one is good for the other.  I would put as much stock in this as I would in any campaign poll, regardless of the sponsorship by the “Marshall University School of Journalism and Mass Communications.”

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