In one way, this table does not bode well for McKinley, but bodes well for Oliverio. Still, Oliverio should be killing McKinley. Though this is not a poll that give us enough information of the voters in this race, it reflects the weakness of the Democrats in the district in the state.
The table suggests that Oliverio is in trouble despite the fact he appears to lead here. The reason? Obama only polled 42% and McKinley is in striking distance at 39%. This means that there are many voters undecided, and in a state where Democrats are 2-1 over Republicans, that is not a positive sign for the Democrats.
Most any Democrat in this state should be polling above 50% as Cost notes:
Generally speaking, these numbers are awful for Democrats. On average, the Democrat is underperforming Obama’s 2008 haul by 12 points. With three weeks to go, that is not a good place to be. What is so interesting about this cycle is that these numbers are typically awful. Anybody who has been following the steam of House polls – both independent and partisan – has fully come to expect numbers like this for House Democrats. At this point, I tend to be more surprised to see a poll where the Democratic incumbent is polling above 50 percent.
Like Raese, advantage goes to McKinley. Raese and McKinley are tied together in this election-either both win or both lose.