A day after the flawed PPP poll, Rasmussen released today a poll showing definite tightening of the race between Manchin and Raese.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Raese edging Manchin 49% to 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

I got into a debate today with someone who know W. Va. politics very well.  This person is neither a Democrat nor a Republican.  This person assured me Raese would defeat himself, and that Manchin’s GOTV would put the governor over the top.  The problem with that analysis is that this state is changing politically, and the balance of power is shifting along with the increased eastern panhandle cosmopolitan voters. The other problem with that analysis is that this is no normal year, and Manchin cannot crack 50%. Another significant fact is the state has been trending Republican for over a decade.  Manchin could overcome all this of course, but he keeps being unpersuasive and evasive in interviews.

For the moment, even though the race has tightened, advantage still goes to Raese.