Over at CQ, the message is that the wave against the Democrats and for the Republicans still has not fully formed. Could this mean it is going to be even bigger than we think? CQ is less enthusiastic about Republican gains, but rest assured, Boehner will be House Speaker:
With the primary period concluded and independent expenditure spending now fully under way, party strategists face the difficult task of figuring out which races to fund, which incumbents to cut lose and how much debt to incur to try to secure a majority in the House.
It also means that it is time for CQ Politics to do a sweeping assessment of the current House playing field and update our race ratings to reflect a battleground that is still tilted heavily toward Republicans but coming into clearer focus by the day. Will Republicans pick up the 39 seats needed to take back the House and install Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) as Speaker? We just don’t know yet. But Republicans are clearly well-positioned to make significant gains.
The article makes clear the trend line it toward Republicans and away from Democrats. Several races are moving from toss-up to leans Republican (which was lean Democrat to toss-up), which means the odds are, the Republican will win it. The question in my mind is still the Senate. I doubt the Republican wave will be that big, but, we are still little over a month out, and the wave is still forming.