The midterms inch ever closer, and with each day, the Democrat Party looks worse. The Cook Political Report has received some attention today, and it does not tell a story Democrats want to hear. They have the Oliverio/McKinley race as a toss-up now. That is a pretty big deal for folks who said Oliverio was a sure bet. So, the House will be going over to the Republicans, who will have over 218 seats. In the Senate, many threw cold water on the chances that Republicans could take it over. Now, Cook reports the Republicans are about 1-2 seats from picking up the Senate. If the Republicans pick up 9, they still may enjoy control as Lieberman will have a choice to make whom to caucus with in the new session.
Larry Sabato looks into his crystal ball and finds more bad news for Democrats. He contends the Republicans will pick up 47+ seats in the House and in the Senate? The Republicans are very close to taking over that as well:
Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a “net” number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.
In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.
So what gives? What has happened to so turn fortunes away from the Dems and to the R’s?
Pat Cadell, a Democrat pollster and adviser for Jimmy Carter, and a Democrat in affiliation, gave an interview at NRO. This srtuck me as a strong statement to make:
“Democrats used to be the voice of the common man in America, not his dictator,” Caddell laments. “Now, with Wall Street, their mantra is, ‘We’ll take your money, but we won’t kiss.’ The people who own the party — George Soros, the Center for American Progress, the public-employee union bosses, rich folks flying private jets to ‘ideas festivals’ in Aspen — they’re Obama’s base.”
Coming from a Democrat, perhaps it suggests there is going to be an internecine war after November 2010.