There are two interesting polls out that seem to portend a gathering storm for a big Republican win in November. First, Pew notes that voter intentions are in favor of the GOP. If you notice the nice figure to the right, you’ll see the Republicans are in the same spot the Democrats were in 2006.
The Republicans are energized; the Democrats are not. The only category the Democrats have is the 18-29 age group, which has low likely voter rate compared to the other age groups.
Finally, the Independents are breaking for the Republicans in great numbers. Republicans have a 20% advantage over the Democrats in the Independent vote. President Obama won with the Independents, and cannot win without them. He has now lost them.
The news is not all good, the GOP still suffers in terms of image, and I still think, in terms of a message that resonates. This is a problem for the GOP, and they do need to do something, find somebody, who can articulate a message that people will respond to and get excited about (this is more important for the 2012 general).
In another poll, Rassmussen notes partisan trends that bode ill fro the Democrats in November:
In June, 35.4% of American adults identified themselves as Democrats. That’s up less than a point from a month ago and down less than a point from two months ago. For the past eight months, the number of Democrats has stayed between 35.1% and 36.0% of the population every single month.
In June, the number of Republicans grew to 33.0%. That’s the highest total in 2010, but just 1.4 percentage points above the low. For the past six months, the number of Republicans has stayed between 31.6% and 33.0% every month.
The number not affiliated with either major party is now at 31.6%.
Check out the graphic to the right:
The trends are remarkable: the Republicans are gaining in party ID, and the Democrats are losing ground. If the trend continues, the Republicans will overtake the Democrats by 2012 quite easily.
Why does this matter? Because the largest determinant of the vote, is party ID. If the Republicans have more people identifying with their party than the Democrats, game over; president Obama will be a one-term president.