Politico/InsiderAdvantage: –Brown 52, Coakley 43

ARG has a new poll:  Brown 52, Coakley 45

The Kos/Research 2000 poll is still a perplexing result, but I still believe the weekend polling skewed the results.  There’s no way Republicans have that high a positive image of Coakley.  I would like to see the question they determined likely voters.  Still, every pollster knows, weekend polls are unreliable.

From ARG’s site:

January 18, 2010 – Massachusetts US Senate

Massachusetts US Senate
1/17/2010 Brown Coakley Kennedy Undecided

Likely voters 52% 45% 2% 2%

Democrats (42%) 23% 73% 2% 2%
Republicans (15%) 97% 1% 2%
Other (43%)
64% 32% 2% 2%

Men (48%) 58% 39% 1% 2%
Women (52%) 46% 50% 2% 2%

18-49 (43%) 53% 43% 2% 2%
50 plus (57%) 51% 46% 1% 2%

1/12-14/2010 48% 45% 2% 5%

Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley 52% to 45% in the special Massachusetts US Senate race to replace Senator Ted Kennedy according to a telephone survey conducted January 15-17 among 600 likely voters in Massachusetts saying they will definitely vote in the special election on January 19.

Brown leads Coakley 97% to 1% among registered Republicans and he leads 64% to 32% among unenrolled voters. Coakley leads Brown 73% to 23% among registered Democrats.

Brown leads 53% to 43% among men while Coakley leads 50% to 46% among women.

Brown leads 53% to 43% among likely voters age 18 to 49 and he leads 51% to 46% among voters 50 and older.

A total of 8% of likely voters say they have already voted by absentee ballot, with Brown leading Coakley 54% to 44%, with 2% for Kennedy.

The interviews for this survey were conducted January 15-17, 2010 among a statewide random sample of 600 likely voters in Massachusetts. To be included in the sample as a likely voter, adults 18 years and older in telephone households (1) had to be registered to vote, (2) rate their chances as a “9” or “10” on a scale of 1 to 10, with “1” meaning definitely not vote and “10” meaning definitely vote on January 19, and (3) to also say they would definitely vote on January 19 at the conclusion of the interview. A total of 251 respondents identified as likely voters are registered to vote as Democrats, 92 as Republicans, 256 as unenrolled voters, and 1 with other parties.

The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 likely voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. The theoretical margin of error will be larger for any sub-samples.

Question wording: If the election for US Senate were being held today between Scott Brown, the Republican, Martha Coakley, the Democrat, and Joseph L. Kennedy, of the Liberty Party, for whom would you vote – Brown, Coakley, or Kennedy? (names rotated)

It gets worse, Coakley held a rally in a gym today.  Few showed (only 25% full), and the campaign pulled a curtain across the gym to make the crowd look bigger.  Meanwhile, Brown held a rally outside in the snow and cold.  Pic below:

Brown at a Rally Today

Brown at a Rally Today