American Research Group has Brown up by 3% with 5% undecided in a telephone survey. See below:
Massachusetts US Senate 1/14/2010 Brown Coakley Kennedy Undecided Likely voters 48% 45% 2% 5% Registration: Democrats (44%) 20% 71% 1% 8% Republicans (20%) 94% 1% – 5% Unenrolled/
58% 37% 4% 1% Sex: Men (47%) 54% 39% 2% 5% Women (53%) 44% 50% 2% 4% Age: 18-49 (43%) 52% 42% 2% 4% 50 plus (57%) 46% 47% 1% 6%
Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley 48% to 45% in the special Massachusetts US Senate race to replace Senator Ted Kennedy in a telephone survey conducted January 12-14 among 600 likely voters in Massachusetts saying they will definitely vote in the special election on January 19.
Brown leads Coakley 94% to 1% among registered Republicans and he leads 58% to 37% among unenrolled voters. Coakley leads Brown 71% to 20% among registered Democrats. A total of 8% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans remain undecided.
Brown leads 54% to 39% among men while Coakley leads 50% to 44% among women.
Brown leads 52% to 42% among likely voters age 18 to 49 and Coakley leads 47% to 46% among voters 50 and older.
A total of 9% of likely voters say they have already voted by absentee ballot, with Brown leading Coakley 58% to 42%.
The interviews for this survey were conducted January 12-14, 2010 among a statewide random sample of 600 likely voters in Massachusetts. To be included in the sample as a likely voter, adults 18 years and older in telephone households (1) had to be registered to vote, (2) rate their chances as a “9” or “10” on a scale of 1 to 10, with “1” meaning definitely not vote and “10” meaning definitely vote on January 19, and (3) to also say they would definitely vote on January 19 at the conclusion of the interview. A total of 263 respondents identified as likely voters are registered to vote as Democrats, 122 as Republicans, 213 as unenrolled voters, and 2 with other parties.
The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 likely voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. The theoretical margin of error will be larger for any sub-samples.
Question wording: If the election for US Senate were being held today between Scott Brown, the Republican, Martha Coakley, the Democrat, and Joseph L. Kennedy, of the Liberty Party, for whom would you vote – Brown, Coakley, or Kennedy? (names rotated)
And this is quite interesting: some internal polls are being leaked showing Brown up by 3, or 11, or Coakley and Brown dead even. Tuesday night is going to be an exciting night to watch politics.
Meanwhile, we spoke in class about partisans and the base of parties in class last week. This radio comment falls into line of what a typical person of any party’s base might say and do, though I confess I have never heard it said so publicly:
Massachusetts Dems dropped a brutal mailer this weekend. Will it backfire or shore up Coakley’s Women demographic?
Regardless, the Brown campaign filed a criminal complaint against them.
See Ann Althouse on a related, but somewhat different, issue regarding the life and choice issue. Is the religious freedom issue a problem for Coakley? She seems to think this matter is an obvious one that Brown does not get, but there’s enormous complexity to the religious freedom v. separation doctrine in law. Furthermore, Coakley seems to be saying that Roe guaranteed, or forces, health care providers to do abortions. She blurs the access to choice with the guarantee of service. It’s an odd argument.