Most have probably heard by now, that Republican Senate candidate Scott Brown is up by 4 in a poll recently conducted in Massachusetts by the Boston Herald.  The 4 points are within the poll’s margin of error however.  Still, this is the first time that Coakley has dipped below 47% I think, and Brown has broken into the the 50% territory.  Brown is clearly surging, but this does not guarantee a Brown win.  Kennedy gets 3% of the vote in the poll and 1% are undecided.  It seems that voters are leaving Kennedy for Brown, if I had to guess, because Brown is somewhat appealing to libertarians and Coakley is definitely not.

If brown wins, and I still think it is an uphill battle for him, then the shockwaves through the electorate will be real.  It will be interesting to see how Democrats react; it will be a wake-up call to the party that the voters (and even their base) is unhappy with their performance.  One quibble I have with those who say that Brown’s win is would be a miracle–it is not unlike Massachusetts voters to vote Republican.  They have done it once before in recent memory.  His name is Mitt Romney.


And with 99 percent having made up their minds, voters may be hard to persuade.

The poll surveyed a carefully partitioned electorate meant to match voter turnout: 39 percent Democrat, 15 percent Republican and 45 percent unenrolled.

Brown wins among men and is remarkably competitive among women – trailing Coakley’s 50 percent with 45 percent.

While Brown has 91 percent of registered Republicans locked up, an astonishing 17 percent of Democrats report they’re jumping ship for Brown as well – likely a product of Coakley’s laser-focus on hard-core Dems, potentially at the exclusion of other Democrats whom she needed to win over, Paleologos said.

For Coakley, Brown’s surge may be as ominous as the fact that her campaign’s peril is not fully recognized, with 64 percent of voters still believing she’ll win – a perception that threatens to keep her supporters home.

Brown’s popularity is solid. He enjoys a 57 percent favorability rating compared to just 19 percent unfavorable. Coakley’s favorability is 49 percent; her unfavorability, 41 percent.

No longer does Brown suffer from a name-recognition problem, with 95 percent of voters having heard of him statewide.